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Ordinarily, the National Football League's Coach of the Year honor adheres to a simple pattern. It commonly acts as a type of apology. Our apologies we misjudged your team in our preseason forecasts.

In theory, it's a direct path: the skipper who engineered the largest turnaround receives the award. In reality, it fuels an annual debate about preseason outlooks and whether we're truly honoring superior coaching or merely the greatest upset.

Yet this year's competition is profoundly different. The group of contenders is remarkably strong. It has been the year of resurgences. The league has been unpredictable, with recent conference champions declining and recent also-rans ascending in unison. Under an typical season, Sean Payton leading the his team to the summit of the conference would make him the clear front-runner. Yet in this wild and entertaining year, he's facing several other exceptional coaches.

Here is how the ideal ballot ought to look.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, His Team, 11-5

Voters for Coach of the Year selectors love signal-callers. History shows this. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. When you transform a quarterback, you're well on your way home.

Ben Johnson didn't merely fixed his young quarterback; he's unleashed him. Given a proper ecosystem, Williams has been given the chance to demonstrate his special talent. From Week 9, the Chicago offense rank number four in offensive EPA per play. That's not a lucky run – it's consistent dominance. Under Johnson, the quarterback has become more decisive, less reckless, and has willingly submitted to the gameplan rather than improvising. It is an offense designed entirely in the coach's image: a bully-ball run game, a heavy dose of play-action and a innovative passing attack that frees wide-open receivers all over the field. Williams has taken advantage. And when openings haven't been there, he's been able to create big plays from nothing.

The coach arrived to Chicago with a defined offensive vision. Almost each gamble – rebuilding the trenches, utilizing the tight ends, transforming Williams into a timing-based thrower – has succeeded. This is rare for a first-year head coach. And it's even more uncommon yet for a coach who entered the building with the level of hype he did. For consecutive straight offseasons, he was the most sought-after candidate on the head coaching market. However when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are zero guarantees. Somehow, Johnson has met expectations – and even surpassed them. He's proven not just to be a scheme genius but the type of leader that can inject new life into an organization.

During a normal year, Johnson would be the runaway choice. Yet the current is not a normal year!

The area where Johnson's case runs slightly into trouble is on the defensive side. The Bears currently rank in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are relying on turnovers, and turnovers are famously fickle. Coaches can emphasise ball disruption, but nobody can guarantee it. Johnson is on the list because the offensive production is sustainable. He's ranked lower because variance is doing too much of the defensive work. With a couple bounces of the ball, the team would be several victories worse off. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the core is in place for long-term success. However Johnson comes up just short here.

4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

The Jaguars' coach is in a similar situation to Johnson. He's a fellow rookie leader who has masterminded a dramatic resurgence. During the crucial final weeks of the year, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the best overall football of his professional life. And he's also overseen the remaking of a defense that now sits at number five in the NFL in EPA per play.

What's more notably, he has excelled at the leadership aspects, which wasn't a certainty following his initial public introduction and some of his offseason decisions.

Coen walked into Jacksonville with an exceptionally inexperienced staff. In contrast to other coaches, who surrounded themselves with the ideal coaching cocktail of youth and experience, Coen hired newbies. From the head coach himself to coordinators to position coaches, the Jaguars are filled with rookies. That kind of approach is intriguing on paper, but often fails in practice – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everybody is figuring out a their job on the fly. Yet Coen has pulled everyone and all elements into sync.

After an early strong beginning, there was a possibility that the campaign would go off the rails. A mid-year setback had the team wobbling again. That's typically when leaders panic and change too much. He didn't. Instead, he simplified things. The offense stopped pursuing home-run answers and started hunting sustainable ones. The coach recentered the attack around his playmakers and the ground attack, and asked his QB to use his mobility more.

The outcomes are clear. The Jaguars have won seven games in a row and will be the conference's No 3 playoff seed. Coen receives the slightest knock in the rankings because he inherited a skilled roster, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that talent.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Each Coach of the Year case has a defining decision. For the Seahawks coach, it was his QB decision.

Moving on from a incumbent, signing a new quarterback and partnering him with an innovative play-caller could have derailed the campaign in the early weeks. Instead, it defined it. Through the mid point of the year, the acquisition was an MVP front-runner. He has fallen away since that hot streak, slipping to 23rd in EPA per pass attempt over the latter part of the season, placing him just one spot ahead of peers.

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