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Growing apprehensions have emerged regarding the chance of armed conflict between East African countries, the Ethiopian government and Eritrea, as aggressive rhetoric has ratcheted up in the last month.

What Has Ethiopian Officials Said?

Landlocked Ethiopia's demands for access to the Red Sea through Eritrean territory has triggered a intense war of words.

Ethiopian Prime Minister initially stated publicly in 2023 that his country's sea access was an crucial concern, statements that Eritrean authorities ignored.

Relations between the two countries have regularly been difficult. Following a decades-long fight for sovereignty, Eritrea, which has a extensive maritime frontage, legally broke away from Ethiopia in 1993, making it without sea access.

In 1998, a border war erupted in which numerous people died.

Latest Comments from Ethiopian Government

Prime Minister Abiy and army chief Field Marshal Birhanu Jula have openly claimed control of Eritrea's maritime facility of Assab – some 60 km from the frontier - and suggested the intention to capture it through military means.

On 1 September, the Prime Minister said the country's "blunder" of losing access to the sea as a result of Eritrea secession would be "addressed tomorrow".

The Ethiopian envoy to neighboring Kenya, former General Bacha Debele, said that Assab was "belonging to Ethiopia" and would be given back "by force".

Eritrean Response to the Statements

In the face of continuous warnings from Ethiopia, Eritrea's response has been confined to concise remarks on online platforms from Information Minister Yemane G..

He has rejected Ethiopia's demand for maritime entry calling it "hazardous" and a "negative policy" of "expansionism" – a approach of retaking previous domains.

Eritrean authorities warned on mid-September that efforts to legitimise "flagrant aggression" would have serious consequences for the Ethiopian government and its neighbors and is a "limit that should not be crossed|violated|breached".

Defense Activities on the Ground

So far, there are no reports of large-scale army activities in the border areas between the two countries.

Nonetheless, in Ethiopia, national TV has broadcast graduation ceremonies of many recruits at various military training camps.

The leader of human resources department of the military, the officer, stated recently in an discussion that the army was in a "secure situation" as "numerous of youths" were joining it, which he said was "a signal to our enemies".

Past Roots of the Tension

For more than half a century from the late 19th century, Eritrea was administered by Italian rulers.

After World War II, it was then administered by the British military before evolving into a federated part of Ethiopia.

However in 1962 the Ethiopian emperor terminated this agreement and the region became fully incorporated into the Ethiopian state.

A thirty-year civil war ensued, finishing with military reversal in the early 1990s. Sovereignty was then confirmed by Eritreans in a plebiscite in 1993.

Briefly in the 1990s, there were good relations between the authorities in Addis Ababa and Asmara, but they disagreed over the exact location of their mutual frontier, causing war in 1998.

Although this finished in a peace deal in 2000, it was incompletely executed, and the two nations continued at odds.

This ended in 2018, when the Prime Minister made overtures to Eritrea's leader President Isaias. The both leaders signed a announcement that the hostilities was over – a action that won the Prime Minister the international recognition.

The two governments were then allies in Ethiopia's 2020-2022 civil war in Tigray.

However ties have since broken down anew.