A decade after the UK entered into a hasty public vote that polarised the nation and unleashed chaos, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two respected writers from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially tense and seismic public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can build support swiftly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our region remains highly fragile."
New Title Intends to Stir Debate
The pair have studied the governmental, financial and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the issue with a tour of lectures that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everyone, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose implications have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extremely divided society where the losing side are resistant to losing and the people who have won are uncertain precisely what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue such a time is imminent, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, making it uncertain whether or when there will be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has hidden the lack of serious debate, said McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which could extend past that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. Much has gone on in academia but very few politicians or advocates are willing to participate even with the essentials. As an example, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, no writer supports unity or the status quo. Each composes two pieces that aim for objectivity in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering financial and social figures, historical precedents and structural examples.
Discussions range over national emblems, taxes, medical care, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to enlighten and provoke discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," stated the writer. "Debate implies an recognition of the idea that there could be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens say they support unity but refuse increased taxation or introducing a different emblem to recognise unionists' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin must determine what the offer from Irish nationalism is beyond just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it might occur suddenly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a poor or a feckless government minister who says: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid perspectives, he commented. "One side will win in this matter and somebody will in the end be defeated but both parties has possesses important lessons to learn from the opposing arguments."
Request for Broader Dialogue
Westminster should engage with the debate, said the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish question."
